Place: L’Olivier Restaurant, 465 Davis Court, San Francisco in the main dinning room. (415-981-7824) The restaurant is easily accessible via BART (Embarcadero Station) and $5 valet parking is available.

NOTE: The dinner is being partly subsidized by the chapter, so the cost is a low $37. RSVP please by March 5 to Secretary Gil Mitchell at gil.e.mitchell@gmail.com and let him know you are coming. Do not reply to the email address—Gil is the one who needs to know!

Richard Pearlman: The Allure of Ancient Coins

Richard Pearlman, specialist in ancient coins, will be our Program Speaker at the March 12 dinner meeting.

Richard bought his first ancient coin at Marshall Fields (Chicago) in 1953 and built a modest collection until college. The collection was then properly transformed into beer money! He came back to collecting almost 20 years ago and began dealing part-time in the '90's and has done so full-time since 2004, bringing with him the perspective of the historian he had become in the intervening years.

Venus

Mr. Pearlman says, “My overall interest is for coins with good eye appeal, whether inexpensive or not. A fine-style coin will always attract me.” Richard’s inventory is ever-changing. “At the moment,” he tells me “I have a good inventory of ancient Greek and Roman coins, most silver but with some gold and bronze as well. Beyond that, I have some antiquities in inventory ranging from small bronze adornments to a bronze Greek helmet . . . and much in between! My main interest ranges from this area to Western Europe.

To learn a little of Richard Pearlman’s expertise, go to the link http://www.thenewsroom.com/details/3591260 where Mr. Pearlman talks with Dan Borsey, of WorthPoint, at the Baltimore Coin and Currency Convention about his collection of ancient coins.

Alexander the Great

Born in Chicago, raised in Evanston, IL, Richard Pearlman attended the University of Wisconsin and U.C. Berkeley (B.A. in History, 1966). Coins from the Roman Empire, Byzantine Era, and Alexandria, are invaluable for the stories and history they can convey of an ancient time. The evolution of coinage is interesting in that it is provides insight into the technology, art, and psychology of the issuing civilization. The origin of struck coinage is traditionally attributed to the Lydians of Asia Minor during the 7^th century BCE; however, there is some evidence to suggest the Chinese were minting at an earlier date. Chinese coin styles remained relatively consistent over the millennia and, while interesting, lack the drama of western coinage.

One tiny piece of electrum, an alloy of silver and gold minted in Ionia on what is now the Turkish coast near where the first coins were crafted, is dated to about 600 B.C., near the dawn of moneymaking. Its retail value: a mere $825.

Silver Tetradrachma

400-365 BC

Probably the best know example of incorporating ancient design into modern coinage is the so called "Mercury" dime of the US. [It is actually winged Victory.] The helmet of the Republican Roma is replaced by the cap of Liberty, but the design is essentially the same. Interestingly, the Fasces [an axe within a bundle of rods, bound by a strap used since Roman times to symbolize civil authority] used on the reverse of US dimes appear only rarely on Roman coins. Other US engravers adopted or adapted designs reminiscent of ancient coins.

"Nothing beats seeing these coins face to face," said Richard, "their beauty and history is fascinating. There's tons to learn."

Note: Richard had generously agreed to donate and ancient coin for our raffle prize!

President’s Message

Robin J. Erdmann, ASA MRICS MAI

We all know that we are in a recession. That’s a no-brainer! But when I asked our February Dinner Meeting guest speaker, Gary Zimmerman, Senior Economist at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, if we are in a Depression, his only response was. “Well, it IS depressing!” If we are going to receive terrible news, no one better than Gary could serve it up more palatably. The near sell-out crowd (we did have to set more place settings for dinner than we expected) was not disappointed in Gary’s delivery!

That about sums up Gary’s annual Economic Forecast. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that we are in very rough and tough times. Will the recently passed $787 billion economic stimulus bill have any effect, and when? Who knows? But over the last 40-50 years, the country’s infrastructure has been slowly crumbling. Priorities? Upgrading this country’s electricity grid? Or expanding the internet infrastructure out to the hinterlands of rural America? Nah, farmers don’t use computers. They just use GPS systems on their tractors to fine tune where to apply their fertilizers without waste. Health programs? Hmmmmm….. Guess it couldn’t pass muster in a separate bill targeted at those issues, but needed to be buried somewhere in an 800 page bill that no one could find until too late.

How about a parallel canal around the Delta so that the next time we have an earthquake up in the Delta, and the levy’s collapse, water flowing to the south will not be compromised by the backwash of seawater up the bay and onto farmland that will remain awash with salt for 30 to 50 years? Currently, water flows into the Delta from the north, and out again to the south. Collapsed levies would also collapse the state’s water supply. That project’s been on the books for years, but there just hasn’t been the political will to pony up the money to do it. It would create jobs, and guarantee clean water to the rest of the state.

Want to learn more about the fragility of the Delta and the state’s water supply? (The California Chapter of the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers is hosting its Spring Outlook session this April in Sacramento. Included in the conference is a two day water seminar – one day in class, and the second on a boat tour. Check out their webpage: www.calasfmra.com).

As one congressional representative noted, the economic stimulus bill (and it’s questionable at times what is intended to be stimulated by some of the earmarks) became more of an Omnibus bill for every rep’s pet project, with the imagery of a Christmas Tree being ornamented by every rep’s pet project. Politics as usual in Washington, DC? Maybe more like “here we go ‘round the mulberry bush, the mulberry bush……”

More importantly, what will happen with TARP funds? Yes, those toxic assets are still floating around on the books of many banks. The first $350 billion got lost pretty quickly in the haste to change administrations, of which a good portion ended up back in the hands of the Feds as a “safe haven”. How many more banks will be forced to take government funds they don’t want or need at 8.25% interest? Yes, folks, that’s a perfect set up for disintermediation, and causing even more banks to fail. The Best and the Brightest running our country? Just remember, Washington and Wall Street both start with the letter “W”.

Will the Chinese continue to bail us out buying our bonds? One recent article I read indicated that the Chinese have little recourse but to do nothing else, because US bonds are still a safe haven compared to those issued by other foreign governments. Gee, and you thought we were bad off.

Will good credit mortgagees be eligible for cut-rate mortgage rates at terms being set up to help those going into foreclosure who probably shouldn’t have been eligible in the first place? Government thinks that subsidizing high risk creditors is necessary, but will they default again? Currently, to be eligible to refinance your house, you must be at an 80% loan-to-value, and you cannot roll your second mortgage, or HELOC, into the first, because it is perceived as taking money or equity out of your house. I won’t even get into FICO scores. But how many credit-worthy home owners are going to be eligible when the value of their house continues to decline, collapsing to a 90%, 95%, or even 100% loan-to-value position, or worse, despite great credit ratings and a perfect record of making timely payments. The Obama administration just announced a $275 billion bailout program for this problem, but….. Common sense credit standards are out of control. Oh, I forgot, common sense went out the door way back . . . when?

Will we go back to the 1980’s and early ‘90s with another Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) situation, with good banks and bad banks? Believe me, folks, some people are going to become very, very wealthy again once they figure out the government game this time around. Been there, done that!

In the midst of all this turmoil, there is, believe it or not, an upside for appraisers, especially real estate appraisers, but all appraisers, too. Lenders are going to require their real estate portfolio’s value to be resized. Good residential appraisers are going to start (and have started) receiving all kinds of work from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, as long as they don’t get caught up in the Appraisal Management Company (AMC) scam that is being perpetrated by the government through the Housing Value Code of Conduct (HVCC) that fails to address the root of appraisal issues. It just rearranges the playing field. That game has already started, too.

Businesses will continue to be bought and sold, perhaps more so as some sell out in hard times. Changes in regulations, such as diesel emissions (for which we had an excellent presentation on the subject at our November meeting) will require fleet appraisals, and all sorts of machinery & equipment valuations. And maybe all those paintings, rugs, and gems and jewelry stored away in the attic will become even more valuable as investors seek to diversify into non-financial assets.

While my message this month does seem a bit dreary, I really do believe, as an appraiser, that the profession, in all disciplines, is going become even more active and we appraisers are going to be bombarded with work due to these most difficult economic times. In the real estate arena, where I practice, another phenomenon is going to begin taking hold, as well. Again, it’s an outgrowth of government regulation. (Want to find an industry in which you will make a lot of money? Just find those that are heavily regulated, with difficult barriers to entry).

Yes, folks, the real estate appraisal profession is going to see a declining supply of qualified appraisers as demand continues to move forward. At the beginning of 2008, the qualifications for both education and experience to become a state licensed appraiser were increased. The examination process was tightened up substantially, too. I don’t think that Toby the Cat will ever receive a state license again, as he did back in 1993. Hey, it’s a true story! State certification requirements are just about to the level at which one is required to perform to receive an accreditation. This puts the need for a professional designation into question, but it slows down the supply of poorly qualified real estate appraisers allowed to operate on their own. Actually, that’s a good thing.

Moreover, many of us appraisers aren’t getting any younger, either, a phenomena known as the “graying of the profession”. Many highly qualified and designated real estate appraisers are getting closer and closer to retirement, in say, the next 5 to 10 years. There will not be enough new appraisers coming in to the profession to make up the difference. Fees WILL go up as supply is strained by constant to increasing demand, though there may be a little waffling in the near term.

The bad news is: this economy is in a heap of trouble. The good news is: we are all positioned to make a lot of money off of our sick friend.

Chapter Issues

With respect to more mundane chapter issues, I wish to report that I am very excited about the progress our chapter is making this year. We have hosted one Gems & Jewelry seminar this fall with the guidance of the instructor, Nancy Stacy, ASA. We netted a small amount of profit from this seminar to help build our reserves for bigger and better things. On February 19, Bob Podwalny, FASA, instructed a one-day Report Writing Seminar, focused primarily at the MTS discipline, but applicable to all disciplines. I am happy to report that the seminar was sold out, and even had a small waiting list. Jack Young has provided the needed administrative support, as Carole Richbourg did for the Gems & Jewelry seminar. We will be able to add to our financial reserves even more, thanks to this seminar.

Tentatively on May 21, David Lewis, ASA will be providing his expertise to real estate appraisers with a Zoning and Site Analysis seminar. We are expecting blow-out numbers for this seminar. Dave is also organizing a 4-hour seminar on the “Trouble with Easements.”

And in early June, Emily Newell, AM, and Doug Baxter, have joined together to create a Personal Property one-day seminar to be held at Filoli Gardens in Woodside, a magnificent estate chock full of antiques, rugs, paintings and fun things that the personal property people like to explore. But it’s not just for the personal property crowd. Everyone is invited, including members of allied organizations. I find that personal property dinner speakers and workshops seem to stimulate the greatest interest and turn-outs.

Bob Podwalny, FASA, also suggested a two-day seminar this September. The first day would be a USPAP update seminar, and the second day would be a litigation-focused seminar. The underlying theme would be MTS, but again, universal. San Francisco is hosting an international conference on MTS issues, and we want our chapter to be front and center representing ASA to the rest of the world.

Region 5 Board of Governor Nominations

Finally, our Region 5 Governor, Jim Brown, ASA, sadly to say, will be termed out of office in June. Jim has served this region admirably, with great aplomb, diplomacy, and dignity. Quite a few issues exist at both the national and local chapter levels. Jim noted in a brief presentation that both levels of the organization tend to be out of touch with each other. Also, branch chapters will be folded into a single major chapter in the near future. Jim pointed out that the issues really require an hour or more to discuss, and he will be coming back to the chapter in the next month or two, whereby we will give him the time required to speak to the issues. I hope all of you can join us for what will essentially be Jim’s “State of the ASA”.

Since Governors are now limited to one term, Region 5 has nominated two candidates to replace Jim. The bylaws require at least two candidates to be nominated, with the preference that each candidate be a past chapter president, but this is not a hard requirement. The person elected to the position holds it for a four year term, and cannot be nominated for a second term.

Both nominees this year are from this chapter. The southern California chapter initially had two nominees, but both pulled out. Candidate number one is Greg Ansel, ASA, who lives in Lafayette. Greg is a business valuator. He had been active in the chapter about the time when Ray Mattison was chapter president, and Ray has nothing but high praise for Greg. I have never met Greg, so I cannot tell you much more about him. He does have a webpage that everyone can investigate.

The second nominee is Robin J. Erdmann, ASA. Yes, folks, that’s me, your chapter president. If you have been reading these newsletters this year, you may already have a flavor for me. As indicated above, I appraise real estate. Besides my ASA, I also hold designations with the Appraisal Institute and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. I am a candidate for the ARA designation with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers. I do not have a webpage to investigate (although I should). So, if you want more information about me, email me and I’ll send you some background information. But be sure to go to Greg’s website, too, and if you would like more information, email Greg as well.

Until next month……….

Upcoming Events: April 9 Program Meeting

Captain Joseph W. Rodgers
From 1978 to present Captain Rodgers has been professionally involved as a marine surveyor for international and domestic insurance companies, financial institutions, yacht brokers, law firms, corporations and individuals and insurance companies representing American and London Institute of Marine Underwriters. He and his firm have surveyed vessels, both commercial and private, power and sail, of all sizes, types and construction, including yachts, passenger ferries, research crafts, cargo ships, commercial fishing boats and small tankers. Appointed by Geary Associates Marine Surveyors to the Underwriters at Lloyds of London providing surveys on cargo/ships/passenger ferries, charter fleets and private vessels.

USCG Licensed Master Senior Member NAMS
Certified Yacht Appraiser ASA
Member of ABYC
Certified "Ultra Sonic" N.D.T., Non-Destructive Testing Technician
Steel Ship Audio Gauge Technician.

CLIENTS COME TO RODGERS & ASSOCIATES
for many reasons. They have a wide range of services offering an unusual depth of knowledge throughout that range and are internationally recognized experts in virtually every area of appraisal and inspection. Their Santa Cruz, CA based office is the appointed West Coast and San Francisco Bay Area representative of a world-wide network of marine surveyors and appraisers working with the underwriters at Lloyds and with major international insurance markets and financial institutions.

They abide by the code of ethics and regulations set by the American Society of Appraisers and the National Association of Marine Surveyors. They are not engaged in any other marine related industry and as a result we may represent all parties in fairness and truth without prejudice.

RODGERS & ASSOCIATES OFFER THE FOLLOWING SERVICES:
Conditional/Valuation Reports
Trip Surveys
Appraisals of Damage
Casualty Reports
Cargo Inspection
Maritime Arbitration
Expert Witness

Complete N.D.T (non-destructive testing)

• Ultrasonic Hull Gauging
• Oil Analysis on Machinery
• Moisture Gauging of Fiberglass

We are excited that Captain Rodgers will be addressing our chapter on the interesting art and science of Marine Surveying. If you are into boats and ships, see how many vessels you can identify on Joe’s “Sailing Quiz” at http://www.rodgersandassociates.com/index1.htm!

ASA 2009 Conference

Hold the Date! 2009 International Appraisal Conference July 12-15, 2009; Renaissance Orlando Resort at SeaWorld, Orlando, Florida. Budget & Finance, Governors’ Meeting & Committee Meetings preceding, July 10-12

Calendar of Events

MARCH 2009

12^th (Thur) Chapter Meeting – “Ancient Coins” Richard Pearlman, Ancient Coin Dealer

Raffle prize will be an ancient coin!
Make Reservations Now!

APRIL 2009

Chapter Meeting: 9th (Thurs) Captain Joseph Rodgers – Marine Survey

21-24 ASFMRA Conference
23rd (Thurs) Fair Value Accounting for Appraisers (Tony Correia, ARA and John W. Ross) $175
Hilton Arden West Hotel, Sacramento, CA

MAY 2009

Chapter Meeting: 14th (Thur) Chapter Meeting – Gov. Jim Brown, “State of ASA”

21^st Dave Lewis’s, ASA, Zoning & Site Analysis seminar

JUNE 2009

4^th ASA Filoli PP Seminar: “Tastes of the Barons” (tentative)

11^th (Thur) Chapter Meeting – “Candidates’ Night”

JULY 2009

ASA Conference, Orlando FL

· July 10: Budget and Finance/Executive Committee Meeting

· July 11: Board of Governors Meeting

· July 11-12: Other Committee Meetings

· July 13-15th ASA Conference Ed Sessions

No Chapter Meeting – Join us at Conference!

AUG 2009

13^th (Thur) No Chapter Meeting?

TBA - Leadership Retreat

SEPT 2009

10^th (Thur) Chapter Meeting

OCTOBER 2009

8^th (Thur) Chapter Meeting

NOVEMBER 2009

12^th (Thur) Chapter Meeting

DECEMBER 2009

10^th (Thur) Chapter Meeting?

ASFMRA OUTLOOK CONFERENCE AND SEMINARS APRIL 21 - 24

April 21 & 22
The Delta in Crisis...Current Issues - Future Plans
A combined classroom seminar and boat tour on the health of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, water supply and conveyance issues and much more... http://calasfmra.com/db_meetings/ASFMRA-PROGRAM_2009.pdf

April 23
Fair Value Accounting and the Appraisal Profession - NEW!
Promoted by ASFMRA, RICS and ASA, this seminar is a must for all valuation professionals moving into the future...

April 24
2009 Spring Ag Outlook Conference & Trends in Agricultural Land & Lease Values
Hear industry speakers covering the latest on economic trends, water, air quality, honey bees, almonds, rice, wine grapes and land trends in the most comprehensive conference of its kind!

Hilton Arden West Hotel
Sacramento, CA
Complete conference brochure link and on-line registration available on Meetings/Classes

For more information, contact the California Chapter, ASFMRA at (209) 368-3672 / secretary@calasfmra.com or visit www.calasfmra.com.

ASFMRA Fair Value Accounting Seminar

In conjunction with its annual Spring Ag Outlook Conference, the California Chapter, ASFMRA will present the NEW Fair Value Accounting and the Appraisal Profession Seminar in Sacramento in April. The full day course has been developed as a collaborative effort between ASFMRA, ASA and RICS and will present important and timely information on the valuation for financial reporting.

Description: Over the next five years, U.S. public corporations will move to “Fair Value” accounting under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Under the IFRS, these companies will be required to report assets and liabilities at the fair market value as of the date of the report, or “marked to market” value. The objective of Fair Value accounting is to provide investors with greater transparency as to the value and the management of assets and liabilities.

Fair Value accounting promises a significant opportunity for the valuation profession…but that opportunity will come with a series of challenges. This seminar will provide the background on fair value accounting, and then will look at how appraisers might benefit from the shift to international standards for financial reports. At the same time, the seminar will also review the steps that appraisers will need to take in order to be in a position to provide valuation services for financial reporting.

The seminar will be instructed by Tony Correia, ARA and John Ross and will include examples of fair value accounting and the valuation issues that appraisers will have to deal with, including those that may be unique to agricultural properties.

Date: Thursday, April 23, 2009

Location: Hilton Arden West Hotel, Sacramento

To receive information on registration for the seminar, contact the California Chapter, ASFMRA office at 209.368.3672 or secretary@calasfmra.com. Registration will soon be available at www.calasfmra.com.

Museum Exhibits

Palace of the Legion of Honor: located in Lincoln Park near 34th Avenue and Clement Street.

Artistic Luxury: Fabergé, Tiffany, Lalique - February 7, 2009 — May 31, 2009

Waking Dreams: Max Klinger and the Symbolist Print - February 28, 2009 — July 5, 2009

De Young Museum: 50 Hagiwara Tea Garden Drive, Golden Gate Park, San Francisco, CA 94118; 415.750.3600; www.deyoungmuseum.org

Tutankhamun and the Golden Age of the Pharaohs returns to San Francisco 30 years after the blockbuster 1979 exhibition—with four new objects! - June 26, 2009 — March 28, 2010 at Warhol Live - February 14, 2009 — May 17, 2009

Yves Saint Laurent - November 1, 2008 — April 5, 2009

Tech Tips

In his book “Hard Times”, the great writer Studs Terkel addressed a subject of great interest to everyone right now, the Great Depression. While the book is worth reading for the lessons it imparts, particular attention should be paid to some very important ideas discussed in the chapter entitled “Big Money”.

In an interview with one of the founders of the ad agency later known as D’Arcy Masius Benton & Bowles, William Benton describes how his business thrived during the depression.

His rules? (paraphrased)

· Listen to your market and customers. They will tell you what they want.

· There are some good investment opportunities that present themselves during a downturn in the economy. Take advantage of them.

· The labor market will be glutted. Take advantage to hire well.

· Look for innovative ways to market. Benton chose radio, in our age it is clearly the internet.

What is the main lesson to be learned?

Rather than wailing and gnashing your teeth, you should look for ways this market can help you improve your business!

Far too many professional appraisers still do not have a website. It that means you, do this now:

Go to www.GoDaddy.com

· Search for possible names for your website by doing a “Domain Name Search” on their home page.

· When you find an available domain name you like, buy it (just $15).

· Sign up for GoDaddy to host your website. They offer the best service at the lowest price.

· Use your current promotional literature, a good photo of yourself, and some information that would be of interest to your prospective clients to form the basic elements of a simple, uncluttered website.

· You can design your own website using Word, FrontPage, or any number of other tools. Or, surf other appraiser’s websites for ideas and contact a few of their designers (usually listed at the bottom of the site in small print) and get a few quotes. It is nowhere near as expensive as it used to be.

· Get you website up and working! You have clients out there looking for someone with your skills on the Internet. Welcome to the 21st Century!

There is nothing like acting on things you can control to neutralize the fear of events outside your power to control. Use this opportunity to you advantage—spruce up your business, attend to your education, and enjoy a little more time with those you care about.

Report Writing Seminar Comments:

“The class went great. Full to capacity. As far as I know, pictures were not taken”. –Gil Mitchell

“It may be self serving but here is what I heard from some of the participants. I overheard a couple speaking saying "they thought it would be boring but were surprised that it was vary interesting and informative." Several people came up after the session and said they thought it was quite good. Jack has the official critiques which I have not seen. The food was great.” –Bob Podwalny

NorCal Officers

L to R: Bob Lentz, Treasurer, Gil Mitchell, Secretary; Robin Erdmann, Chapter President, Jim Brown, Region 5 Governor, Will Schnitzer, Immediate Past Chapter President, Doug Baxter, Chapter Vice-Chair

Chapter officers:

Chapter President Robin J. Erdmann, ASA (RP)

Chapter Vice President Douglas S. Baxter (PP)

Chapter Secretary Gil Mitchell, ASA (MTS)

Chapter Treasurer Robert P. Lentz III, ASA (BV)

Chapter Past Chair William C. Schnitzer, ASA (RP)

Discipline Directors and Associate Directors:

Business Valuation    Jim Schilt, ASA               /    Alan Karbousky, ASA
   Gems & Jewelry     Nancy Stacy, ASA          /              Maury Woulf
                             Master Gemologist Appraiser
                  MTS     Gil Mitchell, ASA             /                           tba
Personal Property     Roger Rapport, ASA         /                           tba
      Real Property     Will Schnitzer, ASA         /                           tba